Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
21.6 miles South of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.6 miles South of Belmont NV
38.3060°N, 116.7528°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 05:01:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
39h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
24.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3ab9244318cfd263a69a0c376981abe1095c4ec37470048bf7472a3dd9c15fcd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.31--116.75-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 13:21:06 PST
Source Batch
20260802_050807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 02:23:45.708030+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.