Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
15.5 miles East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles East of Bridgeport
38.3354°N, 118.9642°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 06:15:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
175h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error
92.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
15.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.36
Predicted M3.46 vs actual M2.1 - 0.36 over limit
Depth Error
25.6 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 9.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
c2c10824dceda755be2b47e3dd7b8e5043ebee4ed7257ff62b68af2a64cd8402
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.34--118.96-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 21, 2026 22:26:41 PST
Source Batch
20260822_155314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-21 22:26:41.543794+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 21, 2026 19:51 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-29 06:15:39.725000+00:00 2026-08-29T06:15:39.725
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 19:51 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
longitude -118.9642 -118.9577
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 19:51 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-21 22:26:41.071424+00:00 2026-08-22T02:51:29.284577+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 19:51 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 38.3354 38.3397
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 00:16 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-21 22:26:41.071424+00:00 2026-08-22T07:16:01.550631+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 00:16 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 38.3354 38.3397
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 00:16 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
longitude -118.9642 -118.9577
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 00:16 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-29 06:15:39.725000+00:00 2026-08-29T06:15:39.725
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 13:23 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-21 22:26:41.071424+00:00 2026-08-22T20:23:01.304599+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 13:23 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 38.3354 38.3397
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 13:23 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-29 06:15:39.725000+00:00 2026-08-29T06:15:39.725
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 17:44 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-21 22:26:41.071424+00:00 2026-08-23T00:44:09.780427+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 17:44 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 38.3354 38.3397
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 17:44 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
longitude -118.9642 -118.9577
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 17:44 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-29 06:15:39.725000+00:00 2026-08-29T06:15:39.725
"pipeline re-ingest"
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