Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
19.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3555°N, 118.9030°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 08:37:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
216h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error
97.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.06
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M2.1 - 0.06 over limit
Depth Error
25.6 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 9.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
d4731b423f2f37b52321e19cfd490e527a2e1b571d7dfc4477aa18f8a2530cf7
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.36--118.90-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 20, 2026 08:17:02 PST
Source Batch
20260821_044809_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-20 08:17:03.361055+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 21, 2026 02:14 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-29 08:37:25.995000+00:00 2026-08-29T08:37:25.995
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 02:14 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-20 08:17:02.330699+00:00 2026-08-21T09:14:20.941983+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 06:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-29 08:37:25.995000+00:00 2026-08-29T08:37:25.995
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 06:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-20 08:17:02.330699+00:00 2026-08-21T13:38:58.624522+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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