Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
4.8 miles East of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.8 miles East of Marietta
38.3728°N, 118.4618°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 04:20:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
239h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
27.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
889425f030400c2af70d8cefe043cd979e5327dd46de57db1df30d26325964f5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.37--118.46-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 05:00:42 PST
Source Batch
20260810_204629_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 18:11:06.766806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.