Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.4 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.4 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3740°N, 118.9284°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 04:34:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
292h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
116.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
30.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
29.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 14.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9b9faf942e188528f6fc6d60fc561793b71c5204a7ffc909a712c58411a6af93
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.37--118.93-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 00:18:15 PST
Source Batch
20260807_160327_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 00:18:16.373118+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.