Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3724°N, 118.9396°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of August 2026
Aug 18, 2026 11:16:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
287h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
108.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
6.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
23.7 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 8.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3b321d3012c66f610a8998a57730ff2b68968dfd7edf4f7630011bd087aa2ad4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.37--118.94-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 11:17:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_030156_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 07:35:09.256498+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.