Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
18.7 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.7 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3784°N, 118.9159°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 16:44:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
341h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
36.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
15.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7e6cd1ee4303739bae6ba4b40856abb89e98175fdcf9fa40ce3c2156ab9053d6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.38--118.92-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 11:25:16 PST
Source Batch
20260808_031044_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 11:25:18.478455+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.