Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
19.0 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.0 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3771°N, 118.9214°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 16:15:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
210h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
35.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
95876681baa883241579cd56765fb228699c91e3d7330a14b3b328e8837f19d1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.38--118.92-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 21:25:42 PST
Source Batch
20260814_130944_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 07:19:51.138637+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.