Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.3 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.3 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3819°N, 118.9341°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 02:44:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
342h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
28.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
29.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 14.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
65bfc985d03b0e54e42daab183bea0094ae24ce416f1e1577d3f25924e6e0d13
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.38--118.93-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 20:30:30 PST
Source Batch
20260805_121735_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.