Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3835°N, 118.9599°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 16:15:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
221h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fb86e9ada722a8f0e73d4e15ba6f19ac498bea720cea34deb962e93edcf552dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.38--118.96-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 10:56:00 PST
Source Batch
20260814_023945_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 20:52:25.733806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.