Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
21.7 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.7 miles South-West of Nye
38.3867°N, 115.5649°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 23:27:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
273h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
325.9 km
200.9 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
39.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.9
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
777f11bf0cfc81c8e51330adf503ce38372d2517cd37994571218ec2031331d1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--115.56-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 13:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260813_053237_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 15:42:08.462036+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.