Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
21.8 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.8 miles South-West of Nye
38.3882°N, 115.5737°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 11:15:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
234h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
81.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
50.8 h
2.8 h over 48 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dc737b4bdd720135cc58b9d6c06bc1e792ddbd3d9b3a67bab1bd55d020d93091
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--115.57-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 16:26:08 PST
Source Batch
20260812_081140_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 16:26:18.474426+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.