Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
22.0 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.0 miles South-West of Nye
38.3893°N, 115.5830°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 23:26:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
318h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
45.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
26.4 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 11.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ea583b54a6fad2e939bca89528ef481c8ab8acc1301329587bcf82a215c1872b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--115.58-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 16:51:37 PST
Source Batch
20260807_083800_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 16:51:38.845506+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.