Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
17.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3912°N, 118.8941°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 23:27:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
270h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
55.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
14.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
22.4 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6f18c8549ea2dccda1bab7fa8209698e5333f152e72040b2fe48f4cf74fa3bb8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--118.89-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 17:20:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_090349_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 09:24:28.760918+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.