Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
17.8 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.8 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3947°N, 118.9091°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 09:20:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
176h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error
36.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
22.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.17
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.5 - 0.17 over limit
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
6d792c332584a2fea20bf638519c7229a628b4fc4a47b27e9fe893d95f1b496a
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--118.91-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 00:53:52 PST
Source Batch
20260815_203338_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 00:53:53.153594+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 15, 2026 00:51 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-22 09:20:23.709000+00:00 2026-08-22T09:20:23.709
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 00:51 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 00:53:52.227969+00:00 2026-08-15T07:51:02.639284+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 00:51 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 38.3947 38.3939
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 04:19 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-22 09:20:23.709000+00:00 2026-08-22T09:20:23.709
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 04:19 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 00:53:52.227969+00:00 2026-08-15T11:19:06.630841+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 07:48 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-22 09:20:23.709000+00:00 2026-08-22T09:20:23.709
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 07:48 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 38.3947 38.3939
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 07:48 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 00:53:52.227969+00:00 2026-08-15T14:48:08.267536+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 14:45 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-22 09:20:23.709000+00:00 2026-08-22T09:20:23.709
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 14:45 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 00:53:52.227969+00:00 2026-08-15T21:45:37.215528+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 21:50 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-22 09:20:23.709000+00:00 2026-08-22T09:20:23.709
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 21:50 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 00:53:52.227969+00:00 2026-08-16T04:50:33.612147+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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