Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.6 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.6 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3891°N, 118.9341°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 02:44:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
345h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
118.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
28.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
29.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 14.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c1e8a14f16ca6d4bbf867cd739363162f689a4c45f71e74f20b5b5f017ee0c79
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--118.93-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 16:52:23 PST
Source Batch
20260805_083842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 09:35:52.768791+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.