Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.6 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.6 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3944°N, 118.9255°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 11:15:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
209h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
34.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
20.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d3daac6357772afed24a4a84396751d4c357be7230103819b1c5db8b7377a9c7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--118.93-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 17:20:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_090349_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.