Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
1.9 miles South-East of Sebastopol
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles South-East of Sebastopol
38.3879°N, 122.7947°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 11:07:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
221h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
33.2 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 18.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3291d236a33ceaaf46427a8fe9a5f4882136fa9f8938d1109255660c698623a7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.39--122.79-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 05:51:50 PST
Source Batch
20260811_213727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 05:51:51.941012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.