Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
14.8 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.8 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3982°N, 118.8453°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of August 2026
Aug 18, 2026 09:25:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
411h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
106.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
18.4 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 8.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1d340432ab396e71d3fc49d39830902ae500b849fc02ae00e46c2d512be60e1d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.40--118.85-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 05:54:02 PST
Source Batch
20260731_214050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 05:54:03.886342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.