Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
17.0 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.0 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3973°N, 118.8932°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 04:04:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
157h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
106.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
27.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.07
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.6
- 0.07 over limit
Depth Error
17.4 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
6114b0534cb6be89b7f2f2b96771bc846bccf748a5593d4afc68316027c03747
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.40--118.89-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 14:25:36 PST
Source Batch
20260814_060944_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 14:25:37.421797+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.