Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3973°N, 118.9204°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 04:04:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
161h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
105.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
27.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.07
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.6
- 0.07 over limit
Depth Error
17.4 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
21d4bce68d440af5b9f5ea85530b7a2c2f7e64c8090c385730aa7025e9382640
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.40--118.92-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 10:56:00 PST
Source Batch
20260814_023945_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 16:52:23.953537+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.