Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.0 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.0 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4092°N, 118.9220°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of August 2026
Aug 18, 2026 22:55:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
157h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
120.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
1.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.07
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.6
- 0.07 over limit
Depth Error
25.1 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 14.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3b21e8128bb94558e904d1190ad8259a496417fdce740bf53e6db2ca470c0129
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.92-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 09:24:27 PST
Source Batch
20260812_010938_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 05:51:51.941012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.