Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
17.9 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.9 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4116°N, 118.9214°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 23:26:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
348h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
104.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.34
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.6
- 0.34 over limit
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
887bc9742c6d63afd10e0730d123d2bb84bd378a81cc0464f01420c5d92fbad6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.92-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 11:17:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_030156_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 16:54:36.868509+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.