Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
17.6 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.6 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4113°N, 118.9161°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 16:29:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
295h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
35.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
80769cbcd229aeece04ab8dbc18b6e267eebc23c21c6324cf6a6b42ef7caf42c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.92-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 08:36:38 PST
Source Batch
20260811_002258_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 02:08:23.309793+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.