Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
18.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4131°N, 118.9321°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of August 2026
Aug 17, 2026 04:48:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
403h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
107.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
12.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 3.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8492e317687b35a514c5b5b10eed2e92bfe464840124ae88b3cec078f6d002c7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.93-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_012013_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 19:52:09.559882+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.