Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.5 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4054°N, 118.9481°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 17:54:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
340h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
107.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
11.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 8.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3838c1600e1b5dab235630ff4da1b80d49f8816d82e8ad33ba9db04659dec48b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.95-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 13:21:06 PST
Source Batch
20260802_050807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 02:23:45.708030+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.