Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
17.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4124°N, 118.9715°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 16:29:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
292h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
30.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cd3180a2c9a908319ddaa3226e8e459cdaa05f72d468c77405431eff9a6996bb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.97-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 12:10:52 PST
Source Batch
20260811_035635_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 22:28:36.604371+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.