Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
1.5 miles North-East of Sebastopol
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.5 miles North-East of Sebastopol
38.4141°N, 122.7998°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 23:04:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
160h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
42.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.37
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.3
- 0.37 over limit
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 0.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c05f015c275a5578b3c659b729c71acf5447696996872af6c93dcc9912a3e1c9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--122.80-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 06:44:32 PST
Source Batch
20260812_222816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 20:05:31.424703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.