Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
58.2 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
58.2 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.4058°N, 124.5580°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of August 2026
Aug 18, 2026 21:12:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
409h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
224.4 km
99.4 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.24
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.7
- 0.24 over limit
Depth Error
19.7 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
34763094714277538a5084e8e2fe61a4b671c9287cd14367566d51270b1eb632
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--124.56-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 19:56:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_114315_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 02:23:45.708030+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.