Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
20.1 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.1 miles South-West of Nye
38.4207°N, 115.5830°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 23:26:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
337h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
45.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
26.4 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 11.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
60638273be228f284c8770b1a56470f82f8ac716b5468a62be5550eb5492b2c0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.42--115.58-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 22:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_140502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.