Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4183°N, 118.9310°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 23:04:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
174h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
103.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
29.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.17
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.5
- 0.17 over limit
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 8.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b64ecf475a1be01d7944c4d408ac7f85cdf9eabf2074a536e62ea93716d9b669
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.42--118.93-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 16:26:08 PST
Source Batch
20260812_081140_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 16:26:18.474426+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.