Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.6 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.6 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4153°N, 118.9560°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 05:44:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
280h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
108.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
14.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
9.6 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 2.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
275e304e69527f856a567b174c713f3601917731d729d458060b8e7f1b29c8c0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.42--118.96-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 13:21:06 PST
Source Batch
20260802_050807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 02:23:45.708030+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.