Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
57.6 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
57.6 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.4197°N, 124.5577°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 06:05:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
404h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
161.7 km
36.7 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
22.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.64
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.3
- 0.64 over limit
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 0.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
adb1eaefae8bda662f374a5ceb2e6955881a83d90d537e0bd96011dcd1bc67a8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.42--124.56-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 09:52:53 PST
Source Batch
20260802_013935_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 23:26:39.950538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.