Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
14.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4280°N, 118.8589°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 09:20:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
103h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
102.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
1.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M3.46 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
22.4 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 6.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
44fdee3b52c991daf5a75105108496ff1e6afebddf9bf0f46733ec60d2fddff3
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.43--118.86-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 18, 2026 01:52:07 PST
Source Batch
20260816_041442_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-18 01:52:08.440284+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.