Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.5 miles West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles West of Hawthorne NV
38.4318°N, 118.9453°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 12:37:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
268h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
109.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
13.2 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 2.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c7d183141c1dd6eee2a509904c59ac17262825097daa4848b31d3a0358a39bb3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.43--118.95-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 08:15:36 PST
Source Batch
20260804_000218_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 23:26:39.950538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.