Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
8.6 miles North-West of Ione
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles North-West of Ione
38.4571°N, 121.0208°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 09:48:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
20.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
223h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
212.8 km
87.8 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.95
Predicted M3.65 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
26.0 km
Pred. 20.2 km vs actual 5.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
3fbd7ec42566fcbb3d0898a739d387d1dea58a62394ab2528057869140d2b303
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.46--121.02-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 18, 2026 01:52:07 PST
Source Batch
20260817_074339_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-18 01:52:08.440284+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.