Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
14.7 miles West of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.7 miles West of Babbitt
38.4751°N, 118.8886°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 20:20:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
156h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error
113.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.36
Predicted M3.46 vs actual M2.1 - 0.36 over limit
Depth Error
16.8 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 1.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
23a24e5f835051a43c6dc9fc9868254d23552b8cb7a6538b3cc9a052cec4d056
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.48--118.89-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 20, 2026 08:17:02 PST
Source Batch
20260821_044809_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-20 08:17:03.361055+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 21, 2026 02:14 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-26 20:20:58.483000+00:00 2026-08-26T20:20:58.483
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 02:14 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-20 08:17:02.330699+00:00 2026-08-21T09:14:20.941983+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 06:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-26 20:20:58.483000+00:00 2026-08-26T20:20:58.483
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 06:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-20 08:17:02.330699+00:00 2026-08-21T13:38:58.624522+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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