Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.5 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.4943°N, 122.2964°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 21:34:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
529h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
124.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
11.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
18.1 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc31499d38078d0e1c819352aa22208d6a848f18ea84f13b07dab6ab24b9e01f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.49--122.30-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 19:56:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_114315_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 12:57:21.108844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.