Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
0.4 miles South-West of Coleville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.4 miles South-West of Coleville
38.5025°N, 119.4480°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 13:20:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
501h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
28.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.56
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
18.1 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
232e4d0c90727206e81c467d351876e68949de89be00eeae39916d567dd9a927
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.50--119.45-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 15:29:55 PST
Source Batch
20260804_071658_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 00:00:20.683630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.