Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.4 miles North-East of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.4 miles North-East of Marietta
38.5057°N, 118.4367°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 00:46:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
120.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
43.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9452e35147f685da7cc50d66b361453d4512eba37c35afb5244ffd72fa0dee80
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.51--118.44-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 00:12:45 PST
Source Batch
20260805_144116_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 00:12:46.609111+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.