Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.0 miles South of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles South of Lake Berryessa
38.5118°N, 122.2260°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 15:19:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
519h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 1.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0101a3d53510a4f0fdb4a54eca026120a2d0a357d3ec4e9a47226be8f8f1688c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.51--122.23-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 00:12:45 PST
Source Batch
20260805_155927_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 13:14:06.311538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.