Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.6 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5120°N, 122.2676°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 05:09:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
526h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
42.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.1 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
04f650b050a5e088dd8431117ebdcab6da42790658eac04ceb8025c09d81d5a0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.51--122.27-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 06:11:15 PST
Source Batch
20260730_215622_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 06:11:17.176388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.