Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.8 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5099°N, 122.2997°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 15:19:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
522h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 1.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
86764bea17a3053686c498fe62642c0cde2ec5df668e4c1b4b11d07f0fda2a68
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.51--122.30-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 20:30:30 PST
Source Batch
20260805_121735_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.