Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.2 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5050°N, 122.3058°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 23:50:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
390h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
0.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 0.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6dd167813b15345047e9399a1ec66c2fa7437e96cbb61888ab52a7ae138975d5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.51--122.31-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 17:20:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_090349_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 10:16:23.842110+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.