Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.3 miles South of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles South of Lake Berryessa
38.5214°N, 122.2160°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 23:48:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
438h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
23.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d13473077ecf9c642f29f4d7b8d0dea388bc6c86cf532f7d9fd568891cbbff15
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.52--122.22-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 16:51:37 PST
Source Batch
20260807_083800_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.