Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.3 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5207°N, 122.2732°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 15:19:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
533h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 1.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
71a908410ea38e4c8d575e0d3317e9109798bab171750f06bd17d2279f1bc0a0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.52--122.27-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 09:35:49 PST
Source Batch
20260805_012128_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 09:35:52.768791+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.