Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.2 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.2 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5183°N, 122.2954°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 23:48:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
468h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
23.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9c44e48ba40234181c96f8d0f53d1e4b43a035f37aeca2a8b79cf672a297ce82
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.52--122.30-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 11:17:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_030156_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 07:35:09.256498+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.