Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.0 miles South-East of Healdsburg
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles South-East of Healdsburg
38.5180°N, 122.8155°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 16:48:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
416h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
4.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e795b12473dd425563de698c326a37485111a37fbfe4fde250c18d4b0f5b1669
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.52--122.82-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 08:36:38 PST
Source Batch
20260811_002258_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 15:05:30.413017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.