Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
2.3 miles East of Cazadero
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles East of Cazadero
38.5324°N, 123.0415°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 14:51:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
482h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
38.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
18.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.90
Predicted M3.0 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 9.9 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c447465c7d8b643db6e72708b9b1dc1dfcf1f692b634a7a70137638372f77a1a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.53--123.04-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 27, 2026 12:11:32 PST
Source Batch
20260727_050822_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-25 06:59:24.024244+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.