Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.5 miles West of Davis
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles West of Davis
38.5775°N, 121.8531°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 21:34:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
533h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
26.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
889311ba7a629c86a51229aff0dd9276f7795f6bacfaabaca5582930bebdc774
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.58--121.85-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 16:26:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_081406_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 09:26:33.276761+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.